Modeling the Effects of Hurricanes with Delft3D Flexible Mesh

Dawson Howell

Abstract

As coastal modeling systems continue to advance in their capabilities, as does our ability to study storm surge phenomena. Due to this, 3D modeling programs can be utilized to create hurricane simulation models using previously recorded hurricane data. The model used for hurricane simulation was the Delft3D Flexible Mesh (FM) Suite. Using this model, we created a coarse, curvilinear grid spanning from Cape Lookout, NC to Cape Island, SC that is roughly 340,000 meters alongshore and 175,000 meters cross-shore. This grid was interpolated with topographic and bathymetric data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) Coastal Relief Model. We validated our model by conducting tidal comparisons and a harmonic analysis using data from NOAA tidal stations at Wrightsville Beach, NC and Springmaid Pier, SC. We then simulated Hurricane Dorian (2019) and Hurricane Isaias (2020) using wind data incorporated into the model via spiderweb grids provided by Deltares. With the hurricane data implemented, we analyzed the changes in atmospheric pressure, wind velocity, flow velocity, and water levels. The simulation results helped us identify consistencies between storms such as a slow decrease in atmospheric pressure until the storm reaches our observation point in the model. Additionally, the flow velocities after both storms were increased due to excess flood waters and the water levels simulated show potential high flood risk areas within the onshore portion of our domain. The hurricane model also allows us to understand that both of our storms were extremely unique to one another, yet still exhibit similar trends and patterns as the other.

Faculty Advisor: Zhangping Wei

Acknowledgment: Zhangping Wei, Ashley Holsclaw

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Dawson Howell

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Email: djh6681@uncw.edu